2026-01-31 14:31:21

1. Short-term (1-3 months): The likelihood is still for oscillation and weakness, possibly retesting the $75,000-$80,000 range.

Main reasons are: leverage has almost been exhausted, but panic sentiment has not been fully released + macro liquidity window has not yet opened significantly.
2. Mid-term (full year 2026): The most probable scenario is "low volatility bottoming + structural slow bull," rather than the crazy surge of 2021.
• Bitcoin is increasingly resembling an "institutional asset" rather than a "retail casino"
• Annualized volatility has significantly fallen below star stocks like NVIDIA
• But this also means the speed of getting rich will slow down considerably
3. Long-term (3-10 years): Still very optimistic.
Global central banks are preliminarily discussing reserving Bitcoin, corporate treasury assetization, and Bitcoin's de facto "second currency" status in some countries/regions, all happening slowly. Matt Hougan's projection of $6.5 million in 20 years (roughly aligning with a very long-term market value view) is exaggerated, but the directional logic is valid.

BTC-0,86%

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