The狂欢 of the bull market filters out speculators, while the冷清 of the bear market forges true winners. The calmness you maintain when others panic, and the insights you accumulate when others are restless, will eventually become your confidence to move upward at a certain turning point. Last night, Bitcoin's price slowly rose to around 82,100, then faced resistance near 83,800 before falling back to around 82,300, currently oscillating around 82,000. Ethereum rose to around 2,708, then moved up to about 2,768 before maintaining a range of 2,720-2,760, then retreated to around 2,634, now oscillating near 2,680.

The continuous decline in coin prices has triggered widespread market panic. Recently, Bitcoin has weakened in tandem with precious metals, falling into a risk-averse sell-off. Its high-risk asset characteristic of "high leverage beta" has been highlighted again. Previously, when the US dollar weakened, the market turned to precious metals for macro hedging. Recently, the reversal of yen arbitrage trading has further intensified pressure on the crypto market. Closing this position means tightening global liquidity—Bitcoin is highly dependent on liquidity conditions, with its price movements directly affected by liquidity fluctuations. Yen arbitrage trading is also one of the key indicators for measuring systemic liquidity. Currently, the market is closely watching the critical support level of $80,000 for Bitcoin. Amid declining risk appetite, accelerated leverage liquidations, and tightening liquidity, short-term volatility in the crypto market is likely to further intensify.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of Bitcoin shows a recent continuous decline. Although there was a slight rebound after a large bearish candle, the overall trend remains downward. On the hourly chart, there are signs of successive lows rising, but no breakthrough of previous high resistance levels. Regarding technical indicators, on the hourly MACD, both DIF and DEA are below the zero line, and the MACD histogram is shrinking, indicating that bearish momentum has weakened but still dominates. The hourly RSI is at 32.12, approaching oversold territory, suggesting a possible technical rebound, but the daily RSI remains in a weak zone. The hourly EMA shows that the 7-period moving average is in a bearish alignment with the 30-period and 120-period moving averages, with the price clearly suppressed by the EMA7. The medium- to long-term trend still leans bearish.

Trading suggestions:

Short around 83,000 for Bitcoin, target 80,000
Short around 2,750 for Ethereum, target down to 2,500