January 30 BTC Contract【Evening Session】Key Technical Levels The market has entered a clear, multi-cycle resonance 'main downtrend wave.' All bullish expectations previously mentioned, such as 'W bottom' and 'bottoming,' have been thoroughly invalidated by a massive monthly-level bearish candle. Focus now on high-probability moves: after a sharp decline, use possible weak rebounds to short at absolute resistance levels. Core Trading Logic: • From a macro perspective, the price has clearly and decisively broken below the long-term upward trend line (around 87,700) that has supported for years. This is not a correction; it’s an initial signal that the long-term uptrend may be ending. The structure has shifted to concerns of a 'bull market end' and the beginning of a 'deep bear market.' • From a mid-term perspective, the weekly massive bearish candle penetrates all moving averages. The support at 87,718 is as fragile as paper. The structure indicates a clear weekly-level main downtrend wave, with no bottom formation. • From a short-term perspective, the price has fallen through consecutive large bearish candles, with moving averages diverging in a waterfall pattern. The daily chart has clearly entered a one-sided downtrend. Any pauses at intermediate levels are just consolidations, not bottoms. All rebounds are suppressed by the upper channel boundary (currently moved down to the 85,500-86,000 region). The market is in a 'decline - consolidation - further decline' cycle. Bull-Bear Threshold: 87,718.0 USDT (the broken monthly life line, now the 'ceiling' and ultimate resistance in this decline, difficult to regain in the short term). Upper Resistance Levels (shorting zones, from near to far): P1: 85,500.0 (recent 4-hour downtrend channel upper boundary and platform resistance, the first high-probability shorting point) P2: 87,000.0 - 87,700.0 (core shorting zone, the first effective resistance platform after a sharp decline, best odds) P3: 90,126.5 (former 'neckline') Lower Support Levels (target/observation zones for shorts): S1: 81,022.9 (24 hours ago’s low, the immediate target, but support is fragile) S2: 78,000.0 (psychological barrier, next short target) S3: 75,000.0 (deeper support, corresponding to earlier chip zones) Probability Trading Discipline: 1. The above levels are technical estimations, not precise points. Orders can be placed with a fluctuation of 100-150 points around these levels. 2. Today's stop-loss distance: 1000 points; (profit-taking distance can be set at 1:1 for beginners, experienced traders should manually move to breakeven after reducing position by 50%-75%). 3. Max 3 preset trades per day (long, short ambushes, breakout trend-following orders). 4. If daily cumulative loss reaches 10% of capital, forcibly shut down and rest. Probability Trading Conclusion: The market is in a main downtrend wave with a high probability strategy: abandon bottom-fishing ideas, only short. Since the decline is deep, violent rebounds (dead cat bounces) can occur at any time. This is exactly the high-odds shorting opportunity we are waiting for. Note: Orders must strictly include stop-losses to fix risk, using a consistent 1:1 risk-reward ratio, allowing market inertia to pay the reward. By consistently executing this simple, repetitive system, you will achieve stable profits.