📊 1.29 Major U.S. Financial Events

1. Federal Reserve FOMC Rate Decision (03:00)

This is the key event of the day, directly determining the short-term direction of cryptocurrencies. If the rate remains unchanged and signals a hawkish stance, emphasizing sticky inflation and no rate cuts for now, it will boost the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, suppress risk appetite, and likely cause BTC and ETH to retreat. If a clear expectation of rate cuts is announced, implying the start of a rate-cut cycle this year, it will weaken the dollar's appeal, loosen market liquidity expectations, and lead funds to flow into the crypto market, with BTC and ETH expected to rise rapidly, possibly even challenging previous highs. An unexpected rate hike would be extremely bearish, triggering a sell-off in global risk assets and causing cryptocurrencies to plunge sharply.

2. Powell's Speech (03:30)

The hawkish or dovish tone of the speech will amplify the impact of the rate decision. If the speech leans hawkish, emphasizing "inflation still has upside risks" and "need to keep interest rates high longer," it will reinforce market concerns about tightening liquidity, putting short-term pressure on cryptocurrencies. If the speech is dovish, mentioning "inflation continues to cool" and "rate cuts are gradually becoming feasible," it will further boost risk sentiment, pushing BTC and ETH higher, and even leading to a collective rebound of mainstream coins. If the stance is ambiguous, the market will enter a period of consolidation, awaiting clearer signals from subsequent data.

3. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week (21:30)

This high-frequency data reflects the U.S. employment market. If the number is below expectations, it indicates a still-strong job market, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, supporting the dollar, and slightly suppressing cryptocurrencies. If the number exceeds expectations, it suggests a weakening job market, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts, which is positive for cryptocurrencies and may cause short-term price increases.

4. U.S. Trade Balance for November (21:30)

This data indirectly affects cryptocurrencies through its impact on the dollar. If the trade deficit narrows, it usually boosts the dollar, indirectly bearish for cryptocurrencies; if the deficit widens, it weakens the dollar and may provide moderate upward momentum for cryptocurrencies.
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