🚀 The Night Before the Federal Reserve Decision: Core Logic Analysis of BTC Market Trends

Brothers, the Federal Reserve decision early Thursday morning is already a well-known script—there's a 97.2% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged. However, the real market trigger has never been the decision itself, but rather Powell's statements during the press conference and the foreshadowing already laid by Trump's "yo-yo dollar" remarks.

🔍 Core Impact Logic

- Early Benefits of the Dollar Plunge
Trump's statement that he is "not worried about dollar depreciation and allows it to fluctuate like a yo-yo" directly pushed the dollar index to its lowest level since February 2022. As a global safe-haven asset denominated in USD, BTC has already benefited from a liquidity wave, providing a solid bottom support for the market after the decision.

- The Game of Rate Cut Expectations is Key
The market's previous optimistic expectations for this year's rate cut pace are being disrupted by official signals of "pause in rate cuts and unclear recovery path." If Powell continues this hawkish restraint during the press conference, risk asset sentiment will be suppressed in the short term; but as long as he signals that the "rate cut window is still open," combined with the broader trend of dollar weakness, BTC's bullish momentum will be instantly ignited.

- Sentiment Dominates During Policy Vacuum Period
After the decision, market focus will quickly shift to speculation about future policy paths. In the absence of clear data guidance during this vacuum period, sentiment and capital flows will become the main drivers of short-term trends, with volatility significantly amplified.

💡 Trading Strategy

- Avoid blindly heavy positions before the decision; patiently wait for clear signals.
- Focus on the statements during the press conference regarding inflation, employment, and the timing of rate cuts. If there are unexpected dovish or hawkish signals, adjust positions promptly to respond to volatility.
- In the medium to long term, the trend of dollar weakening and the expectation of global liquidity easing remain unchanged, which continues to be the core bullish logic for BTC.

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