#黄金白银再创新高 Why are US stocks and gold performing strongly?

The key issue: funds haven't disappeared, they are just reallocating.
1. Why can gold break through $5000?
Gold's rise is fundamentally driven by a demand for safe-haven assets. When investors feel risks are too high, they do two things: sell high-risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks) and buy low-risk assets (such as gold and government bonds). In the past two weeks, three main factors have driven gold higher:
Geopolitical tensions: Greenland incident + tariff threats have unsettled global investors
De-dollarization trend: Central banks, including China's, continue to increase gold reserves (14th consecutive month of accumulation)
Currency devaluation concerns: Investors worry about US fiscal pressure and the long-term decline in the dollar's purchasing power
So, you see, gold's rise isn't because it is inherently better, but because other assets look worse. It's like a group of people trapped in a burning building—they don't care which room is more beautifully decorated; they run desperately toward the nearest exit. Gold is that "exit."
2. Why can US stocks perform strongly? (Especially small-cap stocks) This might be the most counterintuitive part: while cryptocurrencies plummeted, US stocks surprisingly rose. But a closer analysis reveals a clear logic:
First, style rotation
Since the beginning of 2026, a clear trend has emerged in the US stock market: funds are shifting from tech giants to small-cap stocks. The small-cap index has gained about 5.57% - 6% since the start of the year, while large-cap stocks (the seven tech giants) have only increased by 0.56%. The tech sector has performed poorly (down about 0.4%) so far this year.
Why does this rotation happen?
Because investors are starting to worry: Are tech stocks (especially AI-related) valuations too high? Will there be surprises during earnings season? Small-cap stocks tend to be more sensitive to economic recovery and have more reasonable valuations.
Second, earnings season expectations
In late January, the peak of earnings season arrives. Giants like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple will release their results. The market is waiting: can these companies' earnings support current valuations? If earnings beat expectations, stock prices may continue to rise; if not, they may retreat. Therefore, before earnings are announced, funds tend to be cautious and prefer to flow into more reasonably valued small-cap stocks.
Third, economic recovery expectations
Despite geopolitical tensions, the US economy's fundamentals haven't collapsed. The employment market remains robust, and consumer spending hasn't declined significantly. This indicates that the risk of recession isn't as high as the market imagines. If geopolitical tensions ease, market sentiment could quickly recover.
3. What is the logic behind fund flows?
After understanding the logic behind gold and US stocks' rise, let's look at the overall fund flow:
Step 1: Safe-haven demand Geopolitical tensions → investor panic → sell high-risk assets (cryptocurrencies, tech stocks) → buy safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds)
Step 2: Style rotation Tech stocks are overvalued → earnings season uncertainty → funds flow from small-cap to large-cap stocks → small-cap stocks perform strongly
Step 3: Waiting for catalysts The market is waiting for two key signals: easing geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve clarifying the rate cut path. Once these signals appear, funds may reflow into risk assets.
4. Why did cryptocurrencies fall the most?
It is evident that cryptocurrencies fell the hardest because they hit three major pitfalls:
Highest risk attribute: leading the safe-haven rush
Institutional fund withdrawals: large ETF outflows
Leverage liquidations: magnifying the decline
It's like a storm—cryptocurrencies are more volatile among risk assets.