Stay closely tuned to key dates and seize policy-driven "pulse opportunities"

2026 is a critical year for policy implementation, with a series of significant events shaping the new market environment.
• Until the end of January: The U.S. Senate will hold hearings on the Market Structure Act (or the "Clear Act" you mentioned), which is the primary focus for market participants seeking regulatory certainty.
• May 15: The term of Federal Reserve Chair Powell ends, and his successor's policy stance will have a profound impact on global liquidity expectations.
• July: California's Digital Financial Assets Law takes effect, and the U.S. CFTC completes the "Crypto Sprint Plan," with relevant details gradually becoming clearer.
• Second half of the year: Cryptocurrency tax legislation (such as the "Parity Act") may be submitted for review, aiming to provide tax convenience for small payments.
• At the same time, the SEC announced the launch of "Innovation Exemptions" in 2026, offering qualified DeFi and stablecoin projects a 12-24 month compliance buffer period, injecting new expectations into the related sectors.
It is recommended to mark these key dates on your calendar, as they could be important nodes for market sentiment shifts and volatility.

Q4 Timeline: A Steady Roadmap
Q1 (January-March): Accumulation phase — Use pullbacks to buy core assets (BTC, ETH) in batches.
The current market is near critical support zones, such as Bitcoin forming strong technical support around $83,000-$88,000. A cautious approach like setting buy orders near support levels is advisable.
Q2 (April-June): Holding phase — Expect a price peak and gradually reduce positions by 30%.
This period overlaps with the roughly 500-day historical cycle window after the halving (late March to mid-April 2026), which may see increased market activity. Set specific target prices (e.g., Bitcoin challenging the $109,640 neckline) or technical signals (such as weekly RSI entering overbought territory) as triggers for partial profit-taking.
Q3 (July-September): Wait-and-see phase — Look for altcoin rebound opportunities.
If mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) initiate a major rally, funds may flow into quality altcoins later. During this stage, patience is key; focus on tracking leading public chains (like SOL) and top DeFi projects (like AAVE), waiting for volume breakthroughs of key resistance levels and confirmation signals, rather than blindly chasing highs.
Q4 (October-December): Year-end review — Adjust holdings based on policy clarity.
The results of the November mid-term elections will determine policy directions for the next two years, serving as an important market indicator. Adjust your positions dynamically based on election outcomes, macro liquidity conditions (Federal Reserve policies), and forward-looking judgments about the new cycle, shifting to more defensive allocations or preparing for the next cycle.

Strengthen discipline, manage mindset
1. Position management is fundamental to survival: Consider adopting mature position management models, such as the "Four Wallets Rule," dividing assets into long-term cold storage, stable yield, flexible trading, and fiat for daily life. This effectively isolates risks and prevents irrational decisions during volatility.
2. Focus on core assets: Until market uncertainty is fully resolved, capital may tend to flow into the most consensus-driven assets. Therefore, using BTC and ETH as the foundation, complemented by a small amount of well-researched altcoins, is a high risk-reward strategy.

Overall, by leveraging the wisdom of fear, paying attention to policy foresight, and maintaining disciplined patience, 2026 is destined to be an extraordinary year. May we all stay calm amid volatility and have the capacity to seize opportunities when they arise.

Disclaimer: This content is compiled from public market analysis and historical data, intended for informational reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; all investment decisions should be based on independent research.