#预测市场 Prediction markets are something I just recently heard about. I initially thought it was just an ordinary gambling platform, but it turns out the waters are so deep? 😅

I just saw the case of the Maduro incident, and I was truly shocked—someone bet $32,500 and made over $400,000 in just 24 hours, with a return rate of over 1200%! At first, I was wondering how this person was so incredible, but then I saw the news and realized that this isn’t about being a trading genius at all, but rather insider trading with confidential information.

What I find particularly hard to understand is, why would anyone dare to do such a thing? Wintermute’s CEO directly said that insider trading is about extracting benefits from uninformed people, which is extremely unethical. Moreover, US lawmakers are already preparing legislation to crack down on it, so the risks seem really high.

What’s really confusing me now is—if insider trading can happen so easily in prediction markets, then as small retail investors entering the market, wouldn’t it be very easy to suffer losses? How can we tell if there’s any foul play in a market? Is there any expert who can give beginners a basic guide on how to protect themselves in prediction markets? It feels like risk management in this field is especially important, but I really only have a superficial understanding of this area.