#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 on Polymarket jump from 38% to 49%, I have to say a few honest words.

These prediction markets may seem open and transparent, but in essence, they still operate based on gambling psychology and market sentiment. The probability increased by 11 percentage points in just two days—what does that indicate? It shows that FOMO sentiment is rampant here, with many people chasing the upward prediction data, which in turn reinforces this emotion—this is a classic herd mentality.

I've seen too many people crash and burn in prediction markets. They appear scientific, but in reality, they are just packaging betting as a probability game. Will the coin price hit $100,000? That’s not a matter of probability; it involves real market factors like macroeconomics, policies, liquidity, and other complex elements. And what about the participants in prediction markets? Most are just guessing short-term emotional swings, betting on others’ positions, not on real value.

What’s even more painful is that when this prediction hype heats up, it’s often big players using retail traders’ enthusiasm to hedge or collect chips. My simple advice: it’s okay to look at Polymarket’s predictions, but don’t take them as decision-making basis. If you’re still using this kind of data to decide your entry and exit points, you’re probably just paying tuition for others.

Keep your mindset steady, plan your layout carefully—this is much more reliable than chasing probabilities.