#比特币价格反弹 After reviewing Arthur Hayes's latest insights, the logical chain remains quite clear: increased oil supply from Venezuela → downward pressure on oil prices → large-scale deficit spending driven by economic stimulus needs → Federal Reserve coordinating money printing → liquidity flooding the market. Under this expectation, Bitcoin, as a hard asset hedge against fiat devaluation, indeed stands to benefit.

Key signals to watch include: first, whether the Federal Reserve's actual easing pace will truly follow through, which determines the extent of liquidity release; second, Maelstrom is already near full capacity and has significantly reduced its exposure to USD stablecoins, indicating institutional confidence in the upside potential; third, they are selling BTC and ETH to increase positions in privacy coins and DeFi, implying an underlying assumption that altcoins will perform better during liquidity expansion cycles.

From an on-chain data perspective, it is crucial to track the actual flow of large funds—if the above logic holds, we should observe whales continuously buying BTC and adjusting their privacy coin holdings. Whether the current price rebound can be sustained largely depends on whether this macro expectation can be realized through actual policies.