#预测市场 The recent "rule reversal" in the prediction market caught my attention. Infinex's sharp drop from a 93% bullish line to 18%, after the founder changed the rules at the last minute, ended up damaging credibility—it's like encountering a trader suddenly changing strategies mid-trade; you have to quickly judge whether to adjust or accept defeat.

A deeper issue lies in the prediction market itself. The discussions about insider trading on Polymarket, with Wintermute CEO calling it "sad," highlight that some market participants treat information asymmetry as a legitimate profit opportunity. It's similar to what I often see in copy trading—some tactics are within the rules, but once exposed, they can trigger liquidity crises.

The launch of real estate prediction markets sounds innovative, but the accuracy of data and manipulation risks need serious attention. Participating with as little as $100 to judge price trends sounds easy, but it could be a trap. My advice is: if you want to copy a top trader in prediction markets, first check their historical win rate and position logic on Polymarket—don't follow blindly. Especially with the ICO mechanism, understand the rules thoroughly before engaging; don't become Infinex's bag-holder.

What this market has taught us is that transparency in mechanisms and the founders' execution ability are often more valuable than the narrative itself.