#DeFi生态与应用 Hayes's logical chain is worth breaking down: increased oil supply in Venezuela → falling oil prices → government must print money on a large scale to stimulate the economy → liquidity flood in USD → funds seek hedging assets. This chain of reasoning holds at the macro level, with the key variables being the scale of money printing and the time window.

From the on-chain funding perspective, the recent acceleration in stablecoin inflows to exchanges indeed indicates that the market is preparing for significant volatility. Maelstrom's position adjustments also reflect the true expectations of institutions—almost fully invested into 2026, which is no small matter. Their selling of BTC and ETH to increase positions in privacy and DeFi sectors is even more interesting, essentially seeking alpha under the expectation of liquidity surplus.

However, it should be noted that the prerequisites for this logical chain to hold are quite strict—successfully stimulating the economy through money printing, oil prices truly being suppressed without rebounding, and avoiding the resurgence of stagflation expectations. Any change in one link could cause the risk appetite of funds to reverse instantly. Currently, there are no signals indicating such expectations are being overturned in the short term, but this does not justify going all-in; risk management must still be in place.