On-chain data reveals a clear signal: Binance Bitcoin inflow has surged significantly, which is not retail-driven noise but a sign of large holders reactivating. Long-term holders have turned to net buying for the first time in months, indicating that the bottom support is indeed solidifying.

However, it’s important to view this calmly — what we’re seeing now is more like a testing rebound after a few weeks of quiet holding, as traders explore upward potential. The big accumulation has not yet occurred. Q1 is expected to maintain high volatility, with the direction ultimately depending on ETF fund inflows and institutional strategy adjustments. Geopolitical risks should also not be overlooked.

The key is to observe the subsequent actions of those whales: if inflows remain high, it indicates growing confidence among large investors; if prices spike then fall back, it’s just a technical rebound. In the short term, continuing to track capital flows and contract holdings changes is more valuable than blindly following the trend.