#日本国债 Returns hit a new high, and the trend almost perfectly overlaps with gold.

This is not a coincidence,
it's a graphical representation of trust erosion. 🧵👇
The most popular trend in the Japanese market now is not carry trade,
but—"High Market Trading":
👉 Aggressive fiscal policy
👉 Limited rate hikes
👉 Stock market rally
👉 Bond + Exchange rate double whammy
It sounds prosperous,
but essentially it's borrowing from the future.
What is Japan's fiscal situation now?
In one sentence:
👉 It has already become unsustainable.
The money available now is borrowed from old debts taken out ten or twenty years ago.
Back then, interest rates were close to zero,
so they could just barely get by.
But as soon as interest rates rise to 5%:
⚠️ All fiscal revenue will have to go toward paying interest.
Not half,
but all of it.
Many people worry about US debt,
but to be honest:
👉 The structural risk of US debt is far lower than that of Japanese debt.
The truly frightening aspect of Japanese government bonds is—
they may have already entered a vicious cycle:
1️⃣ Aggressive fiscal policy → rising debt risk
2️⃣ Debt concerns → rising government bond yields
3️⃣ Rising yields → Japanese Central Bank policy space compressed
4️⃣ Weakening BOJ function → rising inflation expectations
5️⃣ Rising inflation expectations → further increase in government bond yields
6️⃣ Further rising yields → worsening debt risk
This is a self-reinforcing death spiral.
And what about the exchange rate?
It's very simple:
👉 The logic of #日元 hasn't played out yet.
Under the circumstances of unsustainable fiscal policy + monetary policy being locked,
there's only one way for the exchange rate:
Slowly bleeding, buying time.
So the question is no longer:
"Will the yen fall?"
But:
👉 Will it quickly reach the "national kill line"?
📌 In one sentence:
Japan's current problem,
is not something that can be solved by a single interest rate decision,
but that the entire fiscal—monetary system is beginning to turn against itself.
Gold is rising,
Japanese bond yields are soaring,
this is not a safe haven,
it's the market pricing the ending in advance.