#预测市场 In two days, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 in January on Polymarket jumped from 38% to 49%. The story behind this number is worth a close look.

Do you remember the 2017 bull market? We've seen countless probability curves like this—oscillating wildly like an electrocardiogram, with each rise accompanied by capital inflows and emotional resonance. Back then, prediction markets were not as mature as they are now, but the psychological principles are the same: when a group begins to believe something might happen, that belief itself can push the probability higher.

Interestingly, data from the same period also shows the probability of reaching $95,000 rising from 69% to 88%, while the probability of dropping below $80,000 decreased from 20% to 14%. What does this indicate? Market participants' expectations are converging upward. But I’ve seen this scenario too many times—prediction markets are most easily hijacked by emotions, especially during rapid price increases.

In 2021, I saw similar probability curves spike above 90%, and we all know how it ended. Prediction markets are a mirror reflecting current greed and fear, not the truth of the future. The jump from 38% to 49% may seem like just numbers shifting, but it actually reflects a dramatic change in participant sentiment—and that itself is a warning sign.

The higher the probability, the closer the risk often is.