#预测市场监管与诚信 Seeing the Polymarket incident involving Maduro, my first reaction was—this is exactly why we must stay highly vigilant about on-chain "opportunities."

$32,500 turning into over $400,000 with less than 24 hours, a 1200% profit. It sounds like a windfall, but a close look at on-chain data shows this isn’t just luck. From STVLU.SOL to StCharles.SOL, then to Solhundred.sol, and the flow of funds worth $11 million—all pointing to WLFI co-founder Steven Charles Witkoff—this isn’t investment; it’s outright insider trading.

The most ironic part is that the price started reflecting this information hours before Trump’s official announcement. If you saw abnormal price movements at that time and followed suit, congratulations—you became the bagholder. This is why I’ve always emphasized: prediction markets may seem open and transparent, but if someone has non-public information, the so-called "market efficiency" is a joke.

Now, U.S. lawmakers are proposing legislation to ban government officials from using insider information for trading. What does this indicate? It shows regulators also recognize the severity of the problem. But does this help retail investors who have already suffered losses? No. The losses have already occurred.

My simple advice: in these high-risk markets, always assume your counterparty has information you don’t know. When you see short-term profit opportunities, ask yourself three questions—Where did this news come from? Why am I the only one seeing this opportunity? Who stands to gain the most from this? If you can’t answer clearly, don’t touch it. Longevity is far more important than quick gains.