Gate 2025 Year-End Community Celebration Is Capital Flows Back to the Crypto Market? #GatePlaza Creators' New Year Incentives Three Major Changes in the Crypto Market, New Trends for 2026

Recent Market Movements and Underlying Trends:
Trend 1: Fundamental Shift in Market Structure - From Speculation to Utility, Retail Dominance Ending, Institutional Era Coming:
• Net inflow of BTC on exchanges drops to a three-year low, indicating short-term speculators are leaving.
• Continuous outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, with a single-day net outflow of 14,484 BTC.
• Market transitioning from retail-led cycles to institutional liquidity distribution.
Deep Transformation of Market Narrative:
• From simple store of value to multifunctional application platform.
• Functional assets (like ETH) begin to show long-term potential surpassing BTC.
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebound is taking shape, with structural advantages emerging.

Trend 2: Regulatory Storms Fully Arrive - Compliance Becomes the Bottom Line, Global Regulatory Frameworks Rapidly Implemented:
• The US CLARITY Act legislative process accelerates, clarifying legal boundaries.
• CRS and CARF collaborative regulatory systems launched, including crypto assets under “financial account” regulation.
• China’s central bank to implement a “three-tier filtering” mechanism in 2026: licensing access, compliance review, law enforcement coordination.
Regulatory Red Lines Continue to Tighten:
• OTC trading, capital pools, and pyramid-style “airdrops” are criminalized.
• Personal participation in virtual currency trading risk coefficient exceeds 90%.
• Italy’s withholding tax increased from 26% to 33%, and the €2000 tax exemption threshold is canceled.

Trend 3: Liquidity Expansion Driven by Macroeconomic Shift to Easing Global liquidity turning point has arrived:
• Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, increased bank loans, and lower mortgage rates.
• The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in 2026 rises to a high level.
• China’s central bank continues to adopt a “moderate easing” stance, flexibly using reserve ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.
Institutional Funds Re-enter the Market:
• Bitcoin ETF has recently rebounded, rising about 8% over the past week.
• Large corporations like Bitmine Immersion continue to increase ETH holdings.
• Visa stablecoin settlement volume’s annualized rate reaches $4.5 billion, with demand growing month by month.

Trend 4: Accelerated Technological Innovation - Ethereum’s Moat Continues to Expand Ethereum’s Technical Advantages Highlighted:
• Mainnet scaling plan will increase throughput tenfold, supporting a $4000 target price.
• Dominance in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi remains unshaken.
• Long-term bullish target of $40,000, widely recognized for surpassing BTC’s potential.
Digital Renminbi Ecosystem Upgrades:
• From “Digital Cash 1.0” to “Deposit Currency 2.0” stage.
• Bank wallet balances accrue interest at the current deposit rate, included in deposit insurance.
• Transaction volume expected to surpass 5 trillion yuan in 2026.
Investment Insights and Risk Warnings
Three Major Certainty Tracks:
1. Compliance Survival - Regulatory red lines continue to tighten, compliance is the survival line.
2. Rise of Pragmatism