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ETH (2026-01-08 08:34, $3164) Core Strategy: Primarily buy on dips during pullbacks, with small shorts as a supplement; strictly control position sizes and stop-losses; focus on key support/resistance levels and macro events.
1. Core Data and Key Levels
- Current price approximately **$3164**, 24h volatility **$3125–3301**, mainly consolidating sideways within the day.
- Support: $3120–3150 (short-term), $3060 (200EMA), $2950 (strong support).
- Resistance: $3220–3250 (first), $3300 (key), $3350–3400 (after breakout).
2. Technical Overview
- Daily chart: Still in a bullish structure, price retraced but did not break key moving averages; bullish trend remains intact.
- 4-hour chart: Slightly bearish consolidation, broke short-term moving averages, watch the validity of support at 3120–3150.
- Indicators: Daily MACD above zero line, 2-hour MACD below zero line with increasing green bars, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
3. Trading Strategies (Scenario-based)
1. Buy on dips (primary)
- Entry: Light long positions at $3120–3150, add on stabilization above $3160, total position ≤30%.
- Stop-loss: $3090 (below strong support), risk per trade ≤2%.
- Targets: $3200–3250; if broken, look towards $3300.
2. Short on rebounds (secondary)
- Entry: Short in batches at $3220–3250, confirmed by volume increase or long upper shadow, position ≤20%.
- Stop-loss: $3280, risk per trade ≤2%.
- Targets: $3180–3150; if broken, look towards $3120.
3. Breakout chasing (cautious)
- Long: Break above $3300 with volume and retest confirmation, chase long, stop-loss at $3250, targets $3350–3400.
- Short: Break below $3060 with stabilization, light short, stop-loss at $3100, targets $3000–2950.
4. Risk Management and Notes
- Risk per trade ≤2%, total leverage ≤3x, avoid chasing highs/lows.
- Monitor: US stock ADP data, Federal Reserve speeches, BTC correlation, regulations, and capital flows.
- Breakout handling: If below $3060, reduce longs and switch to wait-and-see; if above $3300 with volume, follow the trend and go long.
5. Today's View
Short-term consolidation leaning bullish, mainly buy on dips at 3120–3150, light short at 3220–3250. Focus on low buy entries with strict risk control.