There are several macroeconomic drivers worth paying attention to in the market this week.

The US-China situation has recently become a focal point. Although actions by certain policy figures have been highly publicized, due to the disparity in power, they actually reduce the likelihood of long-term conflict escalation, so market reactions have not been intense. However, there is a potential turning point—if Venezuela's oil, gold, and rare earth resources can be redeveloped and utilized, it could substantially help the US ease inflation and stabilize economic expectations. This logical chain is worth continuing to track.

**How the Federal Reserve Chairperson Nominee Will Influence Policy Direction**

Trump is expected to announce the new chairperson candidate in early January. According to the latest polls, Haskett leads in support (about 41%), closely followed by Wosh (about 37%). Regardless of who ultimately takes the position, the market has already reached a consensus—the new chair must adapt to Trump's "rapid easing" policy framework. This is a clear positive signal for risk assets and will continue to support market sentiment.

**Why Are Rate Cut Expectations Adjusting?**

Federal funds futures show that the probability of no rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 is increasing. On one hand, it is due to uncertainty brought by the transition of the chairperson; on the other hand, there are significant disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction. If Friday's non-farm payroll data performs well, with unemployment remaining low, it will further reinforce market expectations of a delayed rate cut. In this environment, liquidity-driven factors will become more important than fundamentals.