My friend wants to buy crude oil today and asked me where to buy it.

She made a big profit recently in non-ferrous metals. She believes that since commodities are so crazy, the rotation will also move into crude oil.

Previously, the commodity cycle usually followed the logic of the "Merrill Lynch Clock": first gold rises due to currency easing, then copper explodes with economic recovery, and finally crude oil catches up due to inflation caused by overheating of the economy.

However, this recent gold rally was driven by hedging against distrust in fiat currency, silver and copper were driven by massive physical demand from AI data centers and power grid construction, and also by short covering and speculative frenzy after market sentiment soared.

Crude oil has no positive catalysts; instead, it is impacted by supply-side shocks. US shale oil efficiency has improved, combined with capacity releases from non-OPEC countries (such as Brazil and Guyana), and Venezuela's potential return to the Western oil system in the future—all contributing to ample current oil supply.

Moreover, in the long term, both the East and West are seeking energy transition. Although the West is a step behind due to利益问题, the major trend of slow replacement of fossil fuels with clean energy will not change.

Finally, here are the major investment banks' forecasts for oil prices in 2026.