#我的2026第一条帖 The current probability of a genuine decline is still 15-20%, and it cannot be completely ruled out.

Here are the four most critical "true drop" trigger conditions. If any two or more are met, there is a high chance of a sharp decline on Monday:
1. On Sunday night to Monday, as the Asian trading volume recovers, the funding rate directly turns negative (from +0.13% to below -0.05%) → indicating institutions are shorting again, and bears are regaining control.
2. Whales suddenly collectively withdraw coins to cold wallets → After 20:00 on Sunday, if there are ≥3 withdrawals of 10,000+ coins and they are not transferred back to collateral, it’s a sign of true exit.
3. After the spot ETF opens on Monday, net outflows exceed $100 million within the first hour → indicating institutions are truly abandoning the market, leading to a sharp sell-off.
4. Price breaks through 3070-3080 with high volume on Sunday night to Monday Asian session (a real breakout with large trading volume, not a false spike) → technical and psychological levels are lost, with over 1.3 billion in long positions in the danger zone, resulting in a waterfall drop to below 2900 within half an hour.
None of these four conditions have been triggered so far; instead, all are moving in the opposite direction (funding rates still rising, whales still withdrawing, ETF inflows continuing, and the 3080 level being tested three times).
Therefore, the main probability remains that on Monday, the market will be pushed up to 3800-4000, but you must keep your stop-loss at 3070-3080 firmly in place. If broken, exit immediately—saving your life is the top priority.
A 15% chance still exists, and if a real decline occurs, it can wipe out 30-50% within half an hour.