Market Daily Report (December 30)

On December 22, 26, and 29, BTC surged three times then quickly dropped back (drawing a door), in the short term being linked to US stocks, leveraged speculation, and year-end capital flow lock-in, likely to oscillate within the $86,000-$91,000 range, with the trend waiting for the 2026 market open.

1. Market Reasons
- Following US stocks: Today's decline synchronized with Nasdaq futures dropping 0.5%, market sentiment tightened, and BTC fell first.
- Leveraged chaos: When approaching the $90,000 mark, bullish funds pushed up contract positions, but a pullback triggered stop-loss liquidations. Currently, open contracts have fallen back to 662,000 BTC.
- Time segment divergence: During Asian trading hours, prices rose; during US hours, prices fell. Year-end tax settlements in the US cause investors to sell on small gains, and poor liquidity amplifies volatility.
2. Key Data
- Spot ETF: Net outflows exceeded $1.5 billion in the past 10 days, putting short-term pressure on prices.
- Institutional custody: Coinbase and others are still experiencing outflows, indicating not everyone is bearish; some may be adjusting positions.
3. Key Price Levels
- $86,000 is the critical threshold: Falling below will trigger long liquidation, likely dropping to $80,000.
- $91,000 is the breakout point: Stabilizing here will force short sellers to cover, with targets between $95,000 and $100,000.
4. Strategy Advice
Operate within the range, strictly control positions and leverage, avoid chasing highs and selling lows, monitor key breakout levels, and wait for new trend signals after the 2026 market open. $BTC