ETH 12.30 Short Hunting Diary: Don't Dig a Hole in the Basement

Current price: $2934

Since you're bearish on the overall trend, the current script is just too smooth for you. That so-called iron bottom at 3000 now looks like it’s made of paper.

However, even though the direction is correct, I need to stop you here. If you go all-in and chase the short blindly at this moment, it could easily become awkward.

1. Don't be the unlucky one to be the last to get on the train
Looking at the current price, 2934. It’s like the bulls have already been pushed into the ICU. Jumping in now to add another shot might feel good, but the risk is high.
Why? Because the 2900 support level is right beneath your feet. The bulls are hesitant, but at this key level of 2900, they’ll try to fake a comeback (a last-ditch effort). If you chase the short now, you might get slapped in the face by a quick rebound right after entering, just as you’re shorting at the bottom.
2. The correct hunting stance: Wait and see
Shorting and longing are different; shorting requires more patience and a bit of bad attitude.
The current strategy is to bring a small stool and wait.
Waiting for what? Waiting for those stubborn bulls to try to push the price back to around 2980 or 3000.
Once the rebound weakens and the price shows signs of exhaustion, that’s your best opportunity to enter and harvest. This is called “confirm death before burying,” much safer than jumping in now.
3. What if it really crashes?
Of course, there’s also a possibility that the bulls just lay flat, with no rebound at all, and the price breaks through 2900.
That’s even simpler. As soon as you see a big bearish candle piercing through 2880, don’t hesitate. That’s a sign of a dam breaking, and you should follow the trend, jump on board, slide down the slide toward 2700.

One sentence summary:
Although the trend is terrible, shorting still requires “proper manners.” Don’t fight at an awkward level like 2934. Lurk like a crocodile in the water, waiting for the rebound to pressure levels (2980-3000) to come to you, or wait until a complete breakdown (2880) before opening your mouth.