#加密市场观察 Crypto Daily(12.29): Bitcoin Continues to Consolidate Under Pressure, ETF Capital Outflows Intensify, Mining Hashrate Hits New Highs but Profitability Faces Pressure

1. Bitcoin Market Dynamics and Short-term Sentiment
Bitcoin has recently been trading sideways between $83,800 and $94,600, with low trading volume and hesitant market sentiment. There is a possibility of a "dead cat bounce," driven by leverage rather than spot demand, with further downside risk still present.
Centralized exchanges (CEX) continue to see inflows of Bitcoin, with a net inflow of 2,593.63 BTC over the past 24 hours. KK, Bn, and Gate are the main inflow platforms, while Cb Pro experienced net outflows.
The daily net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $275 million, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing outflows of $193 million, Fidelity's FBTC outflows of $74.37 million, and the ETF's net asset ratio reaching 6.49%.
Bitcoin has realized daily losses of approximately $300 million. Despite high-level buy-ins, the selling pressure from loss-motivated holders has not significantly decreased, and short-term selling pressure remains.
2. Comparison of Bitcoin with Other Assets and Long-term Outlook
Since 2015, Bitcoin has gained approximately 27,701%, significantly outperforming silver (405%) and gold (283%) during the same period. It is regarded as a "top-tier asset," though some hold different views on its correlation with gold and silver.
Bitwise CIO believes that Bitcoin will maintain stable returns over the next decade, with limited gains and lower volatility, experiencing fluctuations rather than large annual increases.
3. Annual Performance of the Bitcoin Mining Industry
By 2025, Bitcoin's hashrate will reach Zettahashes (ZH/s), a 37% increase from 801 EH/s at the beginning of the year. Network security will be significantly enhanced, with controlling over half of the hashrate requiring hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. In 2025, the cost per PH of mining power decreased from about $54.45 per day in January to the mid-$30s, putting profitability under pressure. Industry consolidation is intensifying, with efficient operators surviving and inefficient ones being淘汰.
In 2025, the distribution of Bitcoin mining pools shows that Foundry USA, Antpool, ViaBTC, and F2pool control about two-thirds of the block production, indicating increased industrialization and scale importance.
4. Michael Saylor's Company Updates and Bitcoin Purchase Expectations
Michael Saylor's Strategy company held 671,268 BTC as of December 15, with a book value of approximately $58.9 billion. The company's mNAV (market net asset value) has fallen to near or slightly below the 1x range, approaching Bitcoin's fair value.
Analyst Adam Livingston predicts that a large-scale Bitcoin purchase is imminent, with expected returns for Bitcoin in 2025 around 25%. The 1x mNAV "floor price" has risen to $148.40 per share.