Ethereum market analysis script

Attention family! Yita experienced a major fluctuation in 12 hours! It dropped 136 points and then rebounded 88 points, currently oscillating at 2936, should we buy the dip or short? Let’s clarify the intraday high and low points in 2 minutes! Review: Yesterday at 8:30 AM it went down from 3035, at 10:30 PM it hit a low of 2899, rebounding to 2987 at 4:30 AM, then it pulled back to 2922, and is now stabilizing around 2936.
First, let's look at the core hotspots in the circle: yesterday, the US GDP soared by 4.3%, and the interest rate cut benefits directly fell through, causing the crypto market to weaken simultaneously. This is a key macro reason for the significant drop of Ethereum yesterday. In addition, the uncertainty of regulation due to the US "Clarity Act" not being implemented has led to a net outflow of 555 million from Ethereum in Q3, making institutional funds hesitant to enter the market, which directly suppresses the rebound momentum. In the short term, there are differences in expectations for easing within the Federal Reserve, but the overall macro environment is bearish, limiting the height of the rebound.
Looking at the key on-chain data: first, over 32.4 million ETH is staked, with the exchange circulation ratio at a record low of only 8.7%; the low circulation provides support for the price, which is an important reason for the rebound to 2899 yesterday; second, the on-chain fees have dropped by 45% in the past 30 days, with a decline in active addresses and transaction numbers over the past 7 days, indicating weakened on-chain demand, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound. The futures premium is only 3%, reflecting insufficient optimism and limiting the strength of the rebound.
4-hour chart focus: MACD turns positive from negative, bullish signs begin to appear but RSI has not entered the strong zone. Resistance at 2987, 3030 (yesterday's drop point), a breakout above 3030 would signify a reversal of weakness; support at 2922, 2900, a drop below 2899 could lead to a decline towards 2850-2800, short-term weak volatility.
Summary: Core range 2900-3000. Intraday high 2987-3000, breaking 3000 or reaching 3030 is difficult; intraday low 2900-2922, breaking below 2900 tests 2899, extreme drop to 2850.