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Do you remember 2020? At that time, gold first surged to a new high, while Bitcoin was still struggling below the old high.
So what happened? When the gold rally slowed down, Bitcoin began its legendary surge.
The script is playing out again. Gold has reached a new historical high today, with an increase of over 70%, while Bitcoin is still around $88,000, which is 30% lower than its peak in October.
Looking back at this year's macro data: the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 3 times, the Treasury is buying $40 billion in government bonds each month, global money supply has reached a historic high, and liquidity is returning.
The question is where did the money go? The answer is that, just like in the previous two cycles, it first went to gold.
Current data shows that gold is severely overbought, and the space for continued acceleration in the short term is narrowing. Once funds start shifting from gold to other assets, the price elasticity of Bitcoin will be very large. After all, the market value of gold is about 31 trillion dollars, while Bitcoin is only 1.75 trillion.
Even if Bitcoin's market value only reaches 30% of gold's in the next 5 years, the corresponding price per unit will be around $450,000. History does not repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. Will this time be an exception?
#创作者ETF