Last night, the market tested the key position we have been talking about again, with BTC hitting a low of 87888. From the trend, it rebounded to around 90552 at its highest, encountered resistance, and saw dumping, which confirms the judgment of "there's a ceiling above." So today, let's start from the latest market data and clarify our thoughts.

📈 Today's Market Observation and Logical Analysis

1. Regarding last night's low point: it accurately retraced to the recently emphasized "bull's lifeline" around 87800, and did not effectively break below it. This indicates that this position remains the core of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The market quickly rebounded after testing support, which also shows that there is a strong willingness to buy below.

2. Current market environment: The macro "de-risking" events such as interest rate hikes in Japan have temporarily come to a pause, and some analyses suggest that the macro liquidity crisis has eased, reducing the overall market's dumping pressure. However, internal market competition remains fierce, with long-term holders and retail investors reducing their holdings, while large investors (whales) may be accumulating. Although the short-term trend is unclear, some opinions suggest that if buying power can return, BTC may attempt to challenge $94,000 again in the coming weeks.

🗺️ Today's key technical points

BTC: Stabilizing at 89500, looking up at 90600 → 91600; breaking the strong support at 87800 on the 4-hour chart; probing down to 86800 → 86000 (support levels are all positions to go long)
ETH: Stabilize at 3018, aiming for 3060 → 3106; break below the strong support at 2962 on the four-hour chart; drop to 2935 → 2905 (support levels are all positions to buy).

BTC: As long as the price stays here, the overall structure is not broken, and all pullbacks can be considered fluctuations. It must stabilize above 89500 to prove that the bulls have regained control and initiate a new upward trend.
ETH looks at the correlation: ETH needs to take cues from BTC, its key level is 3018. Only by stabilizing here can it strengthen. A bigger signal is stabilizing at 3030 on the 4-hour level; if it stabilizes, not only will the pullback end, but it may even challenge the previous high.

💡 Operation ideas and personal thoughts
Overall, I believe the market is still within the "key oscillation range" that we defined. In terms of operations, avoid chasing highs and selling lows, and continue to plan trades around key levels.

Holders: As long as the price does not drop below these levels of BTC 87800 and ETH 2962, they can continue to hold and observe.
Observer:
Long position strategy: A more prudent approach is to wait for the BTC price to retrace to the support area of 87800-86800 and show signs of stabilization (such as small timeframe candlesticks forming long lower shadows or bullish engulfing patterns), before considering to enter with a light position, placing the stop loss below the support.
Short position idea: If the price rebounds to around 89500 or ETH 3020 and shows signs of being unable to break through and increased selling pressure, aggressive traders may consider testing with a small position, but must enter and exit quickly and set strict stop losses.
Important reminder: In the coming days, be mindful of the potential "delayed reaction" risk following Japan's interest rate hike. Additionally, liquidity tends to be low during the Christmas holiday, any fluctuations may be magnified. It is crucial to manage your positions well; if prices break below the range, be sure to cut losses promptly and avoid holding positions.

The market needs to choose a direction, and what we have to do is patiently wait for it to break out of this consolidation range and then follow.

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(Personal trading notes, for communication only, not constituting any investment advice)
Market risks are always present, operations should be cautious, and profits and losses are self-responsible. #圣诞行情分析 #圣诞行情 #今日你看涨还是看跌？