【Interest rate hike implemented, why is the market “going against the flow”?】

At 11 a.m., the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike as expected, raising the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Unlike previous statements that “said but didn’t say,” Governor Ueda Haruhiko’s speech in the afternoon conveyed a clear hawkish signal: if economic data (especially wages and inflation in a benign cycle) support it, the central bank “will continue to raise the policy rate.” In other words, this is not the end; future rate hikes will depend on demand.

An event that theoretically would contract global liquidity and suppress risk assets did not cause panic in the market. The yen did not rise but fell (hovering around 156 against the dollar), and the Nikkei index closed higher.
This rate hike was fully anticipated and digested by the market. More importantly, the pressure to close yen arbitrage positions, triggered last year by a “surprise” rate hike that caused a “Black Monday” in global markets, has significantly weakened this year.
Therefore, the news has instead become “all the bad news is out,” giving bulls room to play.

📊 Technical Analysis

If Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes above 86,800, it will push up to 88,000 → 89,000; if it falls below 85,000, it could drop to 84,000 → 83,000.
If Ethereum (ETH) stabilizes above 2,920, it will push up to 2,960 → 3,020; if it falls below 2,880, it could drop to 2,800 → 2,770.

1. Bullish confirmation is strong; the market is testing key resistance levels after the rate hike, which itself is a sign of strength, indicating that macro selling pressure has been absorbed.
2. As long as prices hold above 85,000 for BTC and 2,880 for ETH on the 4-hour chart, the overall sideways but bullish structure remains intact.
3. Risk warning: if prices unexpectedly break support levels, shift to a defensive stance and monitor deeper support zones below.

💡 “How the market interprets it” and “How to respond.”

Today’s market reaction shows that this rate hike has been fully anticipated and digested. Currently, bulls still hold the upper hand.

Position holders can be more relaxed. Set stop-losses at 85,000 and 2,880, the key dividing lines for longs and shorts. As long as these are not broken, the trend can continue.
Chasing highs is not recommended; a better strategy is to wait for a pullback and signs of stabilization, viewing this as a better risk-reward entry point.

(Personal trading notes, for discussion only, not investment advice)
Market risks are always present; operate with caution, profits and losses are your own responsibility.