12.18 ETH Evening Market Analysis

Core Conclusion: Before CPI release, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, focusing on a range of 2790-2900 for sideways trading. After the data is released, follow the trend if a breakout occurs; avoid chasing trades without clear signals.

I. Logical Support

1. Technical: The 4-hour moving averages are under pressure, MACD remains below zero indicating bearish momentum, and after testing the bottom at 2790 yesterday, the rebound was weak, failing to break through the key level of 2900.
2. Capital: 24-hour total liquidation on the network reached $544 million (longs $388 million), ETF short-term capital is flowing out, and fluctuations in pledge and unpledge activities are intensifying liquidity tension.
3. Macro: CPI data from the US will be released at 21:30. US tech stocks are broadly declining (Nvidia down over 3%), and the crypto market shows strong correlation, with risk aversion sentiment rising.

II. Trend Qualitative

The main trend is oscillating and slightly bearish, with key boundaries: resistance at 2900-2945 (previous high + moving average resistance), support at 2790-2761 (recent low + on-chain buying). If CPI is positive, expect volume to break above 2945 and shift to upward oscillation; if negative, break below 2761 to explore 2720.

III. Practical Targets

1. Short positions (priority): Enter in batches around 2880-2900, target 2820-2790.
2. Long positions (low buy): Lightly try entering at 2790-2820, target 2860-2880.
3. Reminder: Do not operate within 15 minutes after CPI release; wait for the price to stabilize before following up.