Ethereum slipped a little overnight, touching around 2915 at the lowest. Currently, the liquidity in the pool is almost exhausted; any small disturbance could cause a big drop. Leverage traders were washed out again last night.

The focus is on tomorrow. It’s not about rate cuts; what the market truly fears is that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates. This is more significant than the Fed’s movements. Over the past decade, a classic strategy has been to borrow nearly zero-cost yen, convert to USD, and buy assets worldwide (including crypto). Now, if Japan actually raises interest rates, the costs will change, forcing some to sell assets and convert back to yen to pay off debts. The historical scenario isn’t very optimistic: in its last two attempts this year, Bitcoin dropped over 20%, and ETH is unlikely to be immune.

Looking at the chart, the 2915 level acts like a temporary bandage, with a stronger support at the 2800 floor below. To the upside, 3100 to 3150 is the first resistance, and to turn around, it needs to break through last year’s resistance at 3300. On-chain data is quite quiet, gas fees are low, indicating weak real trading demand.

Several indicators I follow show that market sentiment is “extreme fear.” Whale addresses are showing some unusual activity, with large transfers and sell-offs, but ETH holdings on exchanges are at historic lows, suggesting most people are choosing to stay put and not withdraw. A glimmer of light in the darkness.

In summary: Currently, the market is under pressure from the year-end liquidity crunch and the looming threat of the Bank of Japan rate hike. The key is to watch the 2900-2915 zone; holding it could allow a breather, but if it fails, the next test is at 2800. Before tomorrow’s news, expect a narrow range of struggle. #市场触底了吗？