#以太坊行情技术解读 ETH's price action today is very clear—this is not a reversal signal at all, just a brief pause after the bears lose momentum. Don't be fooled by the rebound.

The surge in selling volume drove the price straight through the lower Bollinger Band at 2931.21, with the lowest dip reaching 2870 before bouncing back. It looks like a rebound, but in reality, it's just a return near the lower band; the overall downtrend remains unchanged. All three Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the midline at 3067.68 and the lower band diverging further, indicating a clear downward channel.

Currently, the price is stuck at the lower band, which has now become a resistance level—ironically, support has turned into resistance. The real dividing line is at the midline; as long as it isn't broken above, the recent gains are just false signals. There is over 130 points of space to the midline, and for a true reversal, the rebound needs to be gradually built up.

From a technical perspective, it's even more obvious. EMA7 and MA7 are firmly pressing down the price, clearly showing a bearish alignment. Long upper shadows frequently appear on the candlesticks, indicating that the rebound strength is insufficient—every rally gets knocked down. The MACD lines are below zero in deep water, with the green histogram still at -32.7; although there is slight contraction, the downward momentum hasn't been exhausted.

Volume analysis is the most telling—volume increases during declines and decreases during rebounds, which is typical of a downtrend continuation. Buyers are exhausted; selling pressure scares them away.

Fundamentally, the signals are straightforward: a net outflow of $717 million in 24 hours. This isn't something retail investors can cause alone; it's clearly large institutional funds withdrawing. Plus, with holdings reaching 18.497 million ETH, the chain reaction of forced selling has already started. Bulls are either getting wiped out or cutting losses early, making stabilization difficult.

Market sentiment now boils down to three words—panic and caution. The recent plunge has flushed out all the reluctant sellers, but the rebound is weak, and no one dares to buy the dip. Everyone is treating the rebound as an escape pod—selling on rallies. Sentiment is fragile, and the probability of another decline is high.

What’s the next move? Forget about a V-shaped reversal; it’s more likely to be a sideways struggle at lower levels. Key resistance levels include the 3000 mark and the EMA7 zone, with the toughest barrier at the midline 3067. Support levels are around the lower band at 2931, with 2870 as the intraday low and critical support—if it breaks, a new downtrend opens.

From a trading perspective, consider short positions in the 2960-2995 range, targeting 2925 and 2880.
Look boldly downward.
Strategies should adapt to market rhythm; focus on key levels and avoid overthinking. Friends uncertain about the outlook are welcome to discuss and review the trend together.