[Key game before interest rate cut]

Folks, the market is holding its breath and waiting for the Fed's decision at 3 a.m.
Although interest rate cuts are almost a foregone conclusion, Lao Bao's speech is more important - whether to "cheer" the market or "pour cold water" will determine the quality of this wave of rebound at the end of the year. Under this macro sentiment, the technical side has become extremely sensitive.

1. The current market price is hesitating in front of key resistance
Price level: BTC fell back after hitting $94,500, and is currently in a fierce competition between long and short in the core range of $91,918-$92,760. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows last week, indicating a cautious short-term attitude towards institutional funds.
On-chain level: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to an all-time low. Even during the November-December sell-off, Bitcoin continued to flow out of exchanges, indicating that long-term holders are hoarding rather than panic selling. The structural tightening of the supply side is a deeper logic that deserves more attention than short-term price fluctuations.

2. BTC
The current price is in a contracting decision triangle and is about to choose a direction.
1. Bulls (upward breakout):
Premise: The hourly line holds firm and breaks above $92666.
Target: After the breakout, the upward pressure looks towards $93600 and then challenges $94200 (near the previous high). The more significant daily level watershed is at $91900, with a rally target in the $94400 -$96400 - $98100 range.
2. Shorts (Pullback Downward):
Warning: Keep an eye on the 4-hour level close to hold $92260. If it closes below it, a pullback will be initiated.
Support: Support below is $91333, followed by $90333. If $90500 (a key defensive level for bulls) is lost, market attention will turn to the stronger support band of $88800 -$89000 . This is also a lifeline that institutional analysts generally pay attention to.

3. ETH
Ethereum is relatively stronger, but it also faces a key choice.
1. Bulls:
Premise: The hourly line needs to break through strongly and hold firm at $3333.
Target: After the breakout, the upper target is clear, i.e., $3380 and $3450.
2. Shorts/Pullbacks:
Warning: The 4-hour level needs to hold at $3250, where a break would mean a break in the rally.
Support: During the pullback, pay attention to the support effect of the $3180 and $3136 . The broader daily watershed is at $3285, and if it holds firm, look at $3398 - $3450 - $3508, and if it falls, you need to be wary of support towards the $3200 - $3153 area.

Fourth, the core of today's strategy
Before the landing of macro events, use key points as boundaries to carry out range operations to prevent chasing up and killing falls.
Activists: Consider placing long orders in the support area near the $91333 -$90500 support zone for BTC and the $3180 support area for ETH near the $3250 - support zone.
Steady people: It is recommended to hold the currency and wait for the direction of the market to be selected after the Fed's decision in the early morning. Focus on the results of the daily watershed between BTC vs. $92600 and ETH vs. $3285 , and then follow up after gaining a firm foothold.

The rate cut itself may only be an "appetizer", and Powell's guidance for the future is the "meal".

Personal trading notes do not constitute any investment advice, investment is risky, operation needs to be cautious, profit and loss are at your own risk