Next, closely monitor Powell’s speech at the time of the Federal Reserve rate cut and the Bank of Japan’s rate hike.

Right now, the whole internet is focused on the Fed rate cut, but in reality, this round of bullish sentiment has already been priced in. $BTC rebounded from 80,000 to 94,000 was all about speculating on the Fed’s rate cut. The main focus going forward should be next week’s yen rate hike. Many people have forgotten that in 1998, after Japan ended its ultra-low interest rates, the Asian financial system was instantly drained—Indonesia and Thailand couldn’t hold on, and Korea nearly went bankrupt.
Back then, the Fed symbolically cut by 25BP, but in early October the yen suddenly soared, US tech stocks crashed, and the Fed was forced to slash by 75BP in one go just to stabilize the market, after which US stocks rebounded sharply.
The reason why a yen rate hike is bearish for global capital markets is simple: at that time, everyone globally was borrowing yen to buy US Treasuries. Once the yen suddenly strengthens, everyone has to dump US Treasuries for yen, causing US Treasury yields to soar, and then all high-risk assets get hit together, including tech stocks and BTC. This logic still holds today.
Recent contract position data is also strange; whether it’s CFTC or CME, positions keep piling up, which looks like everyone is waiting for tomorrow night’s rate cut to cash out. The real key is actually next week: yen rate hike + CPI. If the CPI comes in unexpectedly high, that means rate hikes and inflation together, both pushing against the market, and volatility could be even greater.
Next, pay attention to Powell’s speech on the Fed rate cut. If it’s a dovish cut, the market could rebound a bit; if it’s a hawkish cut ➕ and the Bank of Japan raises rates, then the market ahead will be even tougher.
BTC#美联储降息预测