December 8: Rate Cuts vs. Rate Hikes—This Week and Next Week Are in the Spotlight

As the dovish calls for Fed rate cuts and the hawkish tone of the Bank of Japan's rate hikes intertwine in December, this could be the most complex policy cycle divergence global capital has faced in over a decade. The market has already priced in an over 84% probability of a Fed rate cut on December 11.

However, traders' concerns have shifted eastward. A single remark from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda—"a decision will be made as appropriate at the December 18-19 meeting"—has caused market expectations for a December rate hike to soar from 20% to over 80% in just ten days.

At 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Fed will announce its December interest rate decision, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. If realized, this would be the Fed's third rate cut in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points. Based on the result expected at 3:00 AM on December 11 and the weekly K-line closing as a bullish candle (as mentioned in yesterday's article), we could see a rebound this week.

Weekly K-line closes with a doji bullish candle: If Bitcoin does not experience a solid break below the 100-day moving average and previous lows this month, watch for whether a morning star pattern forms at the weekly K-line bottom. Conversely, if support fails here and the price breaks down, it will continue to fall. In summary, a bullish weekly close combined with the Fed’s interest rate decision is a positive signal.

12-hour K-line forms a ladder-shaped uptrend, and the MACD moving average indicator forms a golden cross near the zero axis. As long as there is strong bullish volume, this rebound will first target the EMA50 moving average. If it can hold above this level, Bitcoin will aim for the 12-hour EMA100 and the daily EMA50 this week—the two price levels are close, with a target around 97,300.

Based on the above data and technical indicators, this week should be mainly bullish. This article reflects personal views for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

May everyone trekking through the market find wisdom in volatility and encounter composure over time. 🌱$#美联储降息预测