On Friday, December 6, gold closed perfectly, showing a strong bullish stance during the session, hitting a high of 4259 before a sudden pullback and ultimately closing at 4196, breaking below the 4200 mark again. Previously, the hourly chart had broken through the triangle consolidation and intraday highs, but the pullback in the early hours of Saturday actually makes the layout for next week clearer.

On Wednesday, the ADP employment data unexpectedly dropped by 32,000 (expected increase of 10,000), which should have been a huge boost for gold, but instead, it spiked and then pulled back. On Thursday, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell, creating a contradiction between employment and unemployment data, leading the market to bottom out and rebound. On Friday, low inflation cemented expectations of a rate cut, yet gold surged and then plunged to close below 4200! For three consecutive days, US data deviated from market expectations, so why is the gold market not following the “script” at all?

From a market environment perspective, ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting on Friday, global financial markets have adopted a wait-and-see approach: the dollar slipped slightly, gold rose moderately, and the 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, reflecting a generally cautious trading atmosphere. The core issue in the market has shifted from verifying economic data to pre-pricing the divergence in global central bank policy paths (especially between the Fed and the Bank of Japan). The Fed’s rate outlook and the expectation that the Bank of Japan may end negative interest rates have become the key variables affecting capital flows and asset pricing. The policy blackout period is precisely the brewing stage for a new round of trends; gold’s consolidation essentially reflects the tug-of-war before the direction becomes clear.

Currently, the gold shakeout has not ended, and the 4-hour level correction is still insufficient. Even with bullish data, it’s difficult to see a sustained strong unilateral move. Only if the Fed normalizes rate cuts and clarifies its tolerance for high inflation through 2026 will gold prices see a major unilateral trend like in August-October. Next week’s market is most likely to consolidate; a second rebound on the weekly chart is a bull trap. We need to wait for bullish sentiment to cool before a true bullish trend can start. Timing is key to profits.

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