The global market is facing dual variables, one signal has allowed short positions to sense an opportunity, while the other rumor is unlikely to gain traction:

1. Japan's interest rate hike expectations have surged sharply, and the global market may face an unexpected impact: Although not officially announced, the statement by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on December 1 has sent the clearest signal of an interest rate hike this year - the policy meeting on 18-19 of this month will focus on assessing the pros and cons of the rate hike. The market reacted quickly, with the yen strengthening, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield soaring to a new high since 2008. The swap market now expects the probability of a rate hike in December to have risen to over 73%. Once the rate hike is implemented, the yen arbitrage trades worth trillions of dollars will be forced to close, and investors will concentrate on selling off U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and other overseas assets to flow back to Japan, which will not only suppress the valuations of U.S. tech stocks but also trigger capital outflows from emerging markets. As one of the largest overseas holders of U.S. bonds, the return of Japanese funds will further push up U.S. bond yields, putting tremendous selling pressure on global risk assets. Société Générale even warned that this could drag the global economic growth rate down to 1% by 2026.
2. Rumors of Powell's early resignation lack substantive evidence, making it difficult to trigger a real trust crisis: Recently, the rumor circulating on social media that "Powell will resign on December 1" is purely unfounded gossip. In fact, the Federal Reserve's official schedule shows that his core activity that day is a public speech, with no emergency meetings arranged; moreover, Powell's term as chairman lasts until May 2026, and he has publicly committed multiple times to serve until the end of his term. Such rumors occur every month, with no mainstream media corroboration, and have not shaken the market's core trust in the stability of the U.S. financial system, only causing short-term disruptions in market sentiment, making it unlikely to trigger an explosive release of risk-averse sentiment. #十二月行情展望 #LINKETF将上线 $BTC $ETH