November 24 Daily Report

1. The US stock market is the core barometer: tonight's opening is crucial! The Asian and European sessions are unlikely to create major waves; the market will largely depend on the actions of the Americans after the weekend. Moreover, this Thursday is Thanksgiving, and the market will be closed, with only half a day of trading on Friday. If we can stabilize during these first three days, the market will be able to catch its breath next week. December will be more complex due to fund settlements and numerous data.
2. Whether ETF funds can continue to enter is key: Last Friday, there was finally good news, with Bitcoin ETFs inflowing 238 million and Ethereum ETFs inflowing 55 million, stopping the trend of over 900 million outflow from last Thursday in a single day. But this is just a stop in the decline; whether there will be continuous funds this week depends on whether major institutions have started buying again—previously, the price of coins fell below the bottom because major institutions were selling frantically, and there was no one to take over. If institutions do not turn back, it may fall into a vicious cycle of "companies selling coins to maintain stock prices → coin prices drop dragging down stock prices → selling coins again."
3. Price Trend: Support is strong, rebound is slow but the drop is not deep:
- Bitcoin: $82,000-$85,000 is strong support, with large funds buying 500,000 coins for the dip in the last four days. $80,600 is very likely the recent bottom, and a rebound is expected in the coming weeks. In the short term, there is pressure at $88,100, and opportunities can be found at $85,500-$86,100. If it falls below $85,000, don't stubbornly hold onto long positions, as the upper limit for the rebound is $90,200-$90,600.
- Ethereum: $2850 is a hurdle, a rebound to $2850-$2880 can be used for swing trading, if it can't break through $2892, the rebound will end, if it stabilizes, then look for $3000-$3170, ultimately it still depends on tonight's US market.