Boom and bust, US Non-Farm Payrolls hit the scene!#美联储会议纪要将公布

This Thursday night, the market was once again turned upside down by the US September Non-Farm Payrolls data! Once the data was released, US stocks surged like they were on steroids, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all running wild, and tech stocks especially turning red-hot. Meanwhile, gold and cryptocurrencies took a nosedive, especially in the crypto circle, plunging 5% overnight. This scene of ice and fire is even more exciting than a Hollywood blockbuster! 1. Impressive Non-Farm Data, but Is the Labor Market Still Soft? September non-farm employment increased by 119,000, more than double the market expectation of 52,000. The White House quickly took credit, claiming all these jobs are from the private sector and are domestic US workers, full of self-praise. However, Goldman Sachs bond expert Haimark poured cold water on it: don’t be fooled by the lively data; the labor market is still virtual, and a rate cut in December might really happen. But market expectations for rate cuts are swinging like a roller coaster—CME data shows only a 29.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, while the probability of cumulative cuts by January next year jumps to 49.5%. This wavering sentiment is making investors nervous. 2. Fed Officials Throw Cold Water, Rate Market Changes Face It’s like the market was crazy betting on a rate cut when Fed officials collectively came out to “cool down” the hype. Bullard openly expressed concern about 3% inflation, and Harker warned that further rate cuts could trigger financial risks. The rate market immediately “changed faces,” thinking December rate cuts are basically out of the question. But US stocks refuse to believe it, opening higher—Dow up 1.43%, Nasdaq soaring 2.53%, and S&P 500 rising 1.90%. Tech stocks are the biggest winners, with internet and semiconductor sectors skyrocketing, and the “Big Seven Tech Giants” index surging nearly 2000 points, up more than 3%. That was a truly fierce move! 3. Nvidia’s Earnings “Blinding,” Manufacturing Still “Struggling” Nvidia performed spectacularly, rising nearly 4%. Its Q3 revenue hit $57 billion, up 62% year-over-year, and Q4 revenue is expected to reach $65 billion, surpassing market expectations—truly impressive! But manufacturing data dragged behind—Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and New Orders Index both declined, indicating manufacturing is still struggling in the “deep water and fire.” The structural contradictions in economic recovery are fully exposed at this moment. 4. Gold Plays a “Deep V,” Crypto Crash, Market Sentiment in Chaos Once the non-farm data came out, spot gold immediately “dropped like a rock,” falling over 1.5%. Although it later recovered some ground, it ultimately couldn’t hold the $4100 level. This “deep V” pattern made many gold traders’ hearts race. The crypto market was even worse—Bitcoin led a 5% plunge, and altcoins followed suit. The emotional switch of risk assets was vividly displayed overnight. 5. How Should Ordinary Players Respond? Don’t Be Led by Short-Term Fluctuations This roller coaster market is fundamentally driven by sentiment; the actual fundamentals don’t seem as strong as the data suggests. Rate cut expectations are there, but the Fed’s “cold face” is already showing. The future trend depends on economic data. For us ordinary players, don’t get dizzy from short-term volatility. Continue your regular dollar-cost averaging, wait patiently for opportunities, and don’t follow the market’s emotional roller coaster. Remember: the excitement belongs to the market, but rationality is yours! The storm caused by the non-farm data once again proves the market’s sensitivity and fragility. US stocks celebrating, crypto crashing, gold deep V… each asset is responding to expectations in its own way. And the real winners are those who can stay calm and see through the essence.