Since November, the ETF has recorded a cumulative net outflow of over 2 billion USD, with a single-day maximum outflow close to 870 million USD, setting the worst record since its launch. The impact on the narrative level is far greater than the funds themselves: the previous logic of "institutional long-term allocation" was the core support point of the market, but now this support has shifted to reduce position, making retail investors feel the insecurity of "having no adults to back them up." Whale behavior has also shown a clear differentiation. Medium-sized whales holding 10-1000 BTC have continued to be net sellers in recent weeks, selling tens of thousands of Bitcoins, which are clearly early players with substantial profits choosing to cash out. Meanwhile, super whales holding more than 10,000 BTC have been increasing their holdings, with on-chain data showing that some long-term strategic entities are accumulating against the trend during the decline, with scales reaching tens of thousands of BTC.

Meanwhile, the net inflow of small retail investors (≤10 BTC) is also slowly rising, indicating that while the most emotional novice users may panic and reduce their positions, another group of more experienced long-term retail investors is seizing the opportunity to accumulate. The on-chain realized loss metric has recorded the largest daily loss in the past six months, with a significant amount of chips being forced to sell at a loss, clearly showing a typical "surrender sell-off" signal.