The first batch of core economic data was revealed today after the U.S. government resumed operations, and its results will become a key variable anchoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path in December; coupled with the recent intensive hawkish signals released by Fed officials, market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from "a done deal" to high uncertainty. Currently, although risk appetite remains low, the short-term asset trend is likely to exhibit a "rise first and then fall" rhythm.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish statements have recently intensified: Boston Federal Reserve President and current FOMC voting member Collins clearly stated that inflation remains above the 2% policy target and there is no intention to support further rate cuts in the short term, as it is necessary to maintain the current policy rate to balance inflation and employment risks; Cleveland Federal Reserve President Harker also warned that premature rate cuts could undermine the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation. The cautious stance of multiple officials has pushed the probability of a December rate cut, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, down to 29.6%, significantly raising the uncertainty of policy direction.

The first batch of data after the government's restart directly influences the direction of the interest rate cut decision in December. Although the current market sentiment is weak, the initial release of data is likely to be driven by "expectations materializing," leading to a rebound. After the data is disclosed, if the actual values deviate little from market expectations (unemployment rate at 4.30%, non-farm employment at 50,000), the observation funds that have been on the sidelines due to policy suspense will enter the market in phases. Coupled with the marginal signal of "data not exceeding expectations deteriorating," risk assets will trigger a wave of emotional corrective increase; even if the data slightly underperforms expectations, the market will briefly trade on the logic of "interest rate cut expectations marginally warming," supporting the continuation of short-term rebound.

After the rebound, the market will return to the core pricing driven by policies and fundamentals, leading to a shift in the trend towards a fall. If the data validates the combination of "steady unemployment rate and recovering non-farm employment," it will further reinforce the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials—resilience in the labor market means a decreased necessity for policy easing, and the probability of a rate cut in December may further decline; meanwhile, the previous rebound has already exhausted short-term emotional recovery space, coupled with the expectation of "continued tight policy" coming to fruition, risk assets will gradually fall back, while the dollar index will strengthen due to the relative resilience of the economy and the synchronized logic of policy differentiation.

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