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Last night's meeting minutes left the Federal Reserve completely stunned 😱😱😱! There's a heated debate over whether to cut interest rates in December, with three factions in a fierce battle!
The market is stunned 😰! The Federal Reserve is actually divided into three factions arguing with each other 👇, and retail investors are collectively suffering 😭😭😭
❶ Rate cut faction: Several officials insist that a 25 basis point reduction must happen in December🤪
❷ Wait-and-see faction: "Many" big shots strongly oppose, believing that inaction is the way to go 😮
❸ Extremists: Some call for a 50-point cut, while others directly vote against it: "It should not be cut even once!"🤓
What's even more exciting is that the data black box has arrived!
The 44-day government shutdown caused key economic data to disappear, and the Federal Reserve is practically "driving blind"...
The employment report for September was delayed for a month and a half, and was only released this Thursday; the October data was directly cut, leaving the Federal Reserve basically in the dark before the next meeting.
Market expectations collapsed in an instant:
⚡️ The probability of interest rate cuts in December plummeted from 50% to less than 30%.
⚡️ The probability of holding steady has soared to nearly 70%.
⚡️ The rate cut in the swap market pricing has shrunk to only 6 basis points.
Employment dark clouds continue: Private agency data shows that new jobs in September may only be 17,000, while the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits has surged, and a wave of layoffs is on the way...
The only hope tonight: the delayed September non-farm payroll!
An expected addition of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate maintained at 4.3%—this report could very well determine the fate of December!
Powell has long stated: "A rate cut in December is by no means a certainty!" Now it seems this game is more dangerous than expected... Do you think there will be a cut in December or not? Let's get the comments section buzzing!
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