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2. The funding aspect is dominated by a strong bearish atmosphere: the US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum have continuously seen a net redemption tide, with a cumulative outflow of about $3.7 billion. The withdrawal of institutional funds indicates a lack of confidence in the current market conditions. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, long positions were liquidated totaling $650 million, far exceeding the $280 million in short positions, suggesting that the bullish momentum is nearing collapse. This stark contrast in the forces of bulls and bears will further push prices downward. Moreover, since October, the aftershocks of chain liquidations have not subsided; in a high-leverage market environment, even a slight decrease in price could trigger a new round of passive selling.
3. Macroeconomic and market sentiment exacerbate expectations of a decline: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have cooled, and the marginal tightening of dollar liquidity directly suppresses the performance of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. BitMEX co-founders and others in the industry have also warned that Bitcoin may once again fall back to the $80,000 - $85,000 range. Additionally, pessimistic sentiment is spreading in the market, with short-term holders mostly in a state of unrealized losses, making them prone to panic selling, which exacerbates the downward trend. Furthermore, the current weak rebound does not have enough strength to reverse the bearish trend. When it rebounds to key levels such as $91,000, $93,500 - $94,000, it would be a good time to short.