#比特币行情观察

Gate
The rebound at 89000 resembles a sharp pullback rather than a reversal. A stable position above 98000 is necessary for a significant trend to emerge, so there is no need to rush the situation.

Yesterday, BTC finally saw a somewhat strong rebound, marking the strongest rebound in the past week, with an increase of over 4000 points. Many people are starting to shout that the bull market has arrived and that the bottom has been reached. However, from the current perspective, it can only be considered a short-term stop of the decline, not a true reversal. It is still too early to say that the 89000 level is the bottom. Personally, I lean towards a rebound from overselling. Why is that?

First of all, looking at the weekly chart, this drop has filled the gap left by a bullish candle on the weekly chart, and it has also reached the lowest point of the sideways consolidation from last November to February. Therefore, a rebound at this position is quite normal. If we go back to the daily chart, if the drop from 126200 to 102000 is considered the first wave down, then the drop from 116400 to 89000 can be understood as the second wave down, forming a 1:1 drop amplitude. The 89000 level is just about the low point of the second wave rebound, so a rebound at this position makes sense. I believe the highest estimate for this rebound is around 98000. It is very likely that the bears will be hunted around 98000, and there will be further drops. Of course, if it can stabilize above 98000, the subsequent trend will see a new round of rise. However, the above is just my personal opinion and does not represent a complete correctness. The above views are for reference only. So, how should trading be conducted?

First of all, I believe this round of rebound is not over, so after a pullback, it is worth considering a low long position. It would be best if we could get a second test. If the second test does not come down, then the range of 90000-91000 is also a position where we should consider a low long. As for short positions, if we can touch around 98000 and then drop down, it would be a great opportunity to short. If this is an oversold rebound, then a short near 98000 could drop at least 10000 points.