November 16

1. Core Observations of Weekend Market Trends

1. Short-term stabilization but weak rebound: The market achieved short-term stabilization over the weekend. Considering the low liquidity in the market during the weekend, it is already rare to maintain a consolidation phase; however, the strength of the rebound is weak, failing to effectively break through key resistance levels, and the bullish momentum is insufficient, raising doubts about sustainability.
2. External Influences and Subsequent Tests: This preliminary sell-off is directly related to the decline in the US stock market. Under the current weak rebound backdrop, the opening of the US stock market on Monday will be a key test, and attention should be paid to the transmission effects from the external markets.

II. Market Trend Judgment

1. The probability of short-term emotional recovery is relatively high: Last week's sharp decline has released a large amount of panic sentiment. From the emotional perspective, the characteristics of a phased bottom are emerging, and the likelihood of a technical rebound in the short term is quite significant.
2. Medium to long-term oscillation and decline as the main trend: Even if there is a rebound, the height will be limited. It is expected that in the next 1-2 months, the market will most likely maintain a pattern of "repeated oscillation + slow decline", which is consistent with the typical characteristics of the year-end market.
3. Treat bull market expectations with caution: It is currently unclear whether the bull market has ended, but it is advisable to approach subsequent market trends with the mindset of "the bull market has ended," lowering expectations and focusing on risk control.

3. Suggested Operating Strategies

1. Target optimization: For altcoins that have been in a long-term sideways trend and lack upward logic, it is recommended to decisively cut losses and exit, to avoid having funds continuously tied up. Timely replace with quality targets to complete the "blood replacement" of positions.
2. Position Management: The current price level is approaching the holding cost line for most investors (including ETH), and it is necessary to re-evaluate one's position and the underlying asset:
- If the market further declines and falls below the cost price, making it difficult to hold firm or affecting one's mindset, it is recommended to place orders to reduce positions at the current rebound price level to lower risk exposure.
- Maintain cash positions and wait for clearer signs of stabilization, avoid blindly bottom-fishing.