BTC breaks through $106,000. Is the bull market back? Don't rush to go all-in!

The US government is about to reopen, BTC surges past 106K, and many are shouting that the bull market has returned!

The daily chart remains below all moving averages, RSI short-term is already overbought at 77.5.

This move looks more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Check the data carefully:

Large whales (>10,000 BTC) have been net sellers for 3 consecutive months, continuously distributing.
The daily MACD still shows a bearish outlook; a break above $108K is needed to confirm a bull market structure.
The short-term 1H RSI is overbought, and a correction to the $100K-$102K support zone could happen at any time.
The government reopening may bring liquidity recovery, but it's not guaranteed.

✅ Don't chase high: wait until BTC daily stabilizes above $108K. Jumping in now is gambling, not trading.
✅ No change in core holdings: keep 60-80% in spot; a breakout doesn't mean changing your allocation.
✅ Small boat half-position probing: if you want to participate, only use 10-20% of small boat funds, set stop-losses.
$102K
✅ Price zone ambush: $100K-$102K is a good position; wait for a pullback to add more, don’t chase now.

Relying on predictions of big gains is not the way; a buffer and a planned defensive system are key.
Market rebounds don’t mean you should go all-in.
The bull market may be brewing, but first, survive; then, slowly win.

#BTC # Bitcoin #防守流 # Arctic Bear Trading Method #风险管理 # Bull Market