My current assessment of the prediction market is that it's similar to the early stages of the Memecoin market.

Tools are not yet widespread, smart money isn't everywhere, and there is always arbitrage potential. Retail investors can still make easy money.

After playing for a few days with @Polymarket, making predictions for $btc $eth $sol $xrp 15 minutes and 1 hour,

I started with a small trial, trading from $200 up to nearly $600, but was wiped out in the last minute by a whale manipulator.

So I decided to start with small funds and gradually play, summarizing different scenarios and testing various strategies.

Today, I invested $20 and already achieved a 5x return. I made 29 trades with an almost 100% win rate. @PolymarketTrade @polymtrade

A new position management strategy I devised is: every time I hit a 5x gain, I take 70% of the total amount off the table, and use 30% to continue aiming for another 5x.

Here are some of the key experiences I've summarized over the past few days:

First, regarding whale manipulation:
1. Don't open champagne prematurely; once you've placed your crypto bets, monitor until the very end.
2. If you notice a rapid price shift in the last minute, sell decisively. Depending on the situation, consider placing a counter-order.
3. Whale manipulation requires cost; therefore, aim to harvest big gains, or you won't cover the costs. You can judge whether whales are likely to manipulate based on trading volume during the event.

Others:
1. Currently, crypto predictions are mainly driven by people in UTC+8 (Asia). Trading volume drops by half during midnight.
2. If volatility is very low, wait until the last 20 seconds to place your bets. To reduce risk, you can also skip and wait for the next opportunity.
3. Always take some profits when you make money—never get complacent. Predictions can be wiped out in a wave.
4. Predicted prices tend to follow the actual price movement. If you're good at short-term reading the market, or use indicators like KDJ, RSI, VPVR, and resistance levels, you can pick up bargains. If unsure, you can also place small positions, which often have a risk-reward ratio of over 5x. If you realize you're wrong, it's okay—just switch to the correct position to cover the initial loss.