The recent fall in Bitcoin is not caused by a single factor, but rather a result of multiple pieces of unfavourable information coalescing. The core reasons can be summarized in four points:

1. The Federal Reserve's policy shift shatters interest rate cut fantasies: Bitcoin's market is highly dependent on the Federal Reserve's policies. Previously, the market was generally confident about a continued interest rate cut in December, leading to early position building. However, Powell clearly stated that he does not assume future interest rate cuts are a certainty, causing the probability of a rate cut in December to plummet from nearly 100% to around 60%. Coupled with the U.S. government shutdown leading to the absence of key economic data, investors' confidence in high-risk assets has been undermined, prompting them to withdraw and seek safety.
​
2. Major institutions are collectively cashing out: The core driving force behind the recent rise in Bitcoin—institutional funds—has started to flow out on a large scale. The Bitcoin spot ETF, which is the main channel for institutional entry, saw a weekly outflow of $607 million, directly offsetting the net inflow from the previous week; since February, the total scale has shrunk from $40.7 billion to $35.9 billion, with a loss of $4.8 billion within a month. Products from leading institutions like BlackRock continue to experience capital outflows, with even discounted trading occurring, indicating a trend of collective selling by institutions and retail investors.
​
3. Technical warning triggers sell-off: The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a death cross where the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, a strong bearish signal. Coupled with key price levels being consecutively breached, it has fallen from a high of $126,000 to around $107,000, a decline of over 15%. Technical investors have reacted by stopping losses and exiting the market or holding coins on the sidelines, further intensifying the sell pressure.
​
4. Hacker attacks trigger panic emotions: The decentralized trading protocol Balancer was attacked by hackers, resulting in losses of up to $120 million. Although the official promised compensation, it still hit the market's concerns about the technical security of crypto assets. In addition, over 310,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, and $1.2 billion in funds evaporated, causing panic emotions to spread and trigger a chain sell-off, with crypto-related stocks falling simultaneously, forming a vicious cycle of decline, panic, and sell-off. #比特币价格分析