#ETH How to place orders tonight? Currently, the focus is still on short positions, shorting during the Rebound, and then taking long positions after the bottom is formed.

🎯 Stop loss and bottom judgment: Three major confirmation conditions not met.
The true bottom should have the following characteristics:

✅ Technically oversold → Met (RSI 28.11)
❌ MACD histogram narrows → Not satisfied (histogram still expanding -67.92)
❌ Volume Confirmation → Not Met (Net inflow in the last 8 hours was only 5.49 ETH, far below the daily average level)
❌ K-line pattern confirmation → Not satisfied (clear double bottom, V-shape, or hammer line not formed)
The current situation is: "Technical oversold + capital cooling + mixed sentiment", which is a typical **"false bottom" characteristic**.

📈 Future Trend Forecast (3-7 Days)
Short-term (24-72 hours):

Downside risk: If it breaks below the support level of 3508.29, it may continue to probe the 3400-3450 range (support below the daily line).
Rebound opportunity: If volume confirmation is obtained in the 3550-3600 range, it may rebound to 3700-3750 (near EMA20).
Probability assessment: Downside probability 55%, Rebound probability 45%
Medium term (1-2 weeks):

Key resistance: 3900 USDT (EMA20), 4000 USDT (psychological level), 4100 USDT (EMA120)
Key support: 3500 USDT, 3400 USDT
Drivers: Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting, macroeconomic data, institutional fund flows
🚀 Your exclusive trading advice
Priority One: Wait for confirmation signals, do not rush to go long ⏳

Why not go long now?

The MACD histogram is still expanding, indicating that the downward momentum has not weakened.
In the last 8 hours, the net inflow was only 5.49 ETH, and the enthusiasm for bottom fishing has cooled.
Long positions account for 86.4%, the crowding is too high, and the Rebound space is limited.
The financing rate is negative, and the market expectation is downward.
When can I enter a long position? It needs to meet any of the following conditions:

Condition A: Technical confirmation

The MACD histogram is starting to narrow (the difference between DIF and DEA is decreasing)
RSI(6) found support in the 20-30 range, forming a double bottom.
The 1-hour candlestick shows a clear hammer or inverted hammer pattern.
Condition B: Capital confirmation

Net inflow exceeded 10,000 ETH in 24 hours (showing that bottom-fishing enthusiasm is recovering)
Financing rate turns from negative to positive (bullish sentiment recovers)
The net inflow of large orders continues to be positive.
Condition C: Price Confirmation

Supported in the 3550-3600 range, forming a clear double bottom.
Break through 3650 (15-minute resistance), close firmly.
Suggested operation plan:

Spot: Build positions in batches in the range of 3500-3550, target range 3750-3850 (near EMA20), stop loss at 3450.
Contract: Not recommended for now, consider light long positions (no more than 2x leverage) after confirming the above conditions.
Risk Management:

Single trade stop loss not exceeding 3%
The total position does not exceed 20% of the account.
Keep 50% cash to prepare for further decline.
📊 Benchmark reference: correlation with BTC
According to the latest news, BTC is also experiencing a similar decline (shorting to below $106,000), indicating that the entire market is in a risk-averse phase. As a risk asset, ETH's rebound often lags behind BTC. It is recommended to pay attention to BTC's technical breakthroughs as a leading indicator for ETH's rebound.

⏰ Follow-up focus points
Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting (expected mid-December): If Powell releases dovish signals, it may drive a Rebound.
Macroeconomic data: Pay attention to U.S. employment data, CPI, etc., as this will affect interest rate cut expectations.
Institutional capital flow: Monitor whether large net inflows have recovered, as this is an important confirmation of the Rebound.
Technical breakthrough: If ETH breaks through 3750 (1-hour resistance), it may trigger a larger Rebound.
$ETH $BTC $GT #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000 #十二月降息预测