#ETH Powell's late-night speech: retail investors staying up waiting for "doves", institutions have already seen through the ten-year trap.

Powell's speech at 00:35 made retail investors across the internet stay up all night like they were on steroids, hoping for the "dovish" tone to save the market. But has the Federal Reserve's trap really not been understood after ten years?

Market experts are shouting that a 25 basis point cut is a must in October and December, but the Federal Reserve has already prepared a backup plan. Powell says "gradual rate cuts" but in fact, it's just managing expectations for US stocks and the dollar, with a lot of smoke and mirrors.

After the last interest rate cut, the US stock market surged, and retail investors stared at the red-hot charts thinking they were going to get rich, while institutions quietly sold off behind the scenes. By the time retail investors realized what was happening, they had already become the "great fools" standing at high positions. It was the same during the interest rate cuts under Trump ten years ago; the US stock market initially dropped before rising, and retail investors rushed in to take over, only to ultimately fall victim to being harvested.

Now Powell says "ensure that the unemployment rate does not surge," sounding like he is thinking of the common people, but institutions have already laid out their strategy of "buying the expectation and selling the fact." By the time retail investors rush in to lift the market, institutions have already cleared their positions, and with any slight market movement, retail investors become the first casualties.

Not to mention that market forecasts are just tools; employment data and inflation numbers are like toys in the hands of the Federal Reserve. Retail investors should stop believing in "rate cuts = increases" and forget how many people went bankrupt and left the market when interest rates were turned around back in the day?

Tonight, regardless of whether Powell speaks "dovish" or "hawkish", just remember three points: first, "dovish tones" may be a green light for big players to reduce their holdings; second, the more expectations there are for interest rate cuts, the more likely a black swan event is to suddenly occur; third, 90% of market predictions are bait used by institutions to lure retail investors into raising the platform.