Ethereum future trend analysis and probability assessment

1. Short-term (1-3 days) scenario

Continuation of Downtrend (70% probability):
If it cannot recover 3,812 (Bollinger Band lower limit), the target looks down at 3,275 (previous low), and if it breaks below, it may test the 3,000 level.

Technical Retracement (30% Probability):
If it holds steady at 3,812 and breaks through 4,282 (Bollinger Band middle line) with strong volume, the target looks at the range of 4,500-4,700.

2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks) trend

Decisive factor:

Federal Reserve's policy signals from the November interest rate meeting (November 2);

US October CPI data (October 13);

Progress on Ethereum Spot ETF Approval (Key Milestones in November).

I hold it for the medium to long term until there are signals for a trend reversal, not caring about short-term fluctuations.
#CoinDesk9月Gate战绩来袭